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NADIE SABE CÓMO RESOLVER LA CUESTIÓN IRANÍ
05.01.2024 11:10
Parece no haber consenso entre los Estados Unidos, Israel y Gran Bretaña y dentro de cada uno de esos países, sobre cómo enfrentar la cuestión iraní en el tema del conflicto de Hamás e Israel, que va sumando nuevo actores. Sería precisamente Teherán quien finacia al menos a Hezbollah y a los rebeldes de Yemen. Mientras algunos británicos proponen fortalecer la presencia en el Mar Rojo y atacar a los rebeldes hutíes, desde Estados Unidos no faltan quienes mencionan la posibilidad de un ataque directo pero limitado a Irán. Se conocen los riesgos que tendría un ataque total a Irán, difícilmente practicable en estos momentos, pero se desconoce cuál sería la reacción iraní ante un ataque limitado. Ni una opción ni la otra resuelven el tema. Irán tiene uranio enriquecido suficiente como para construir tres bombas atómicas, lo cual complica gravemente el panorama en el Oriente Medio.
Buena parte de las fuerzas terrestres de Israel está constituida por reservistas, es decir, viven de un trabajo habitual de tiempo completo, que no puede ser abandonado sin graves consecuencias para su economía personal y para la economía del estado de Israel. Esa sería al menos una de la razones por las que Israel está retirando tropas de la Franja de Gaza. En tanto Hamás, pero especialmente el Hezbollah y los hutíes siguen muy activos en la lucha y el riesgo de una escalada no ha decrecido sino que más bien parece estar acrecentándose, llevando a la posibilidad de una guerra aún más sangrienta cuando no total en la región.
Aparatos F-35B - Foto: Cpl Tim Laurence/MOD - Este archivo tiene licencia de Open Government Licence versión 1.0 (OGL v1.) nationalarchives.gov.uk/doc/open-government-licence/version/1/ (La imagen original fue redimensiosionada)
Se sabe de la existencia de algún informe de inteligencia israelí que alertaba sobre la posibilidad de un ataque en la frontera entre Gaza e Israel que data de un año antes de ocurrido el suceso. También se sabe que Biden envió a Teherán 6.000 millones de dólares en concepto de rescate de rehenes, a lo cual cabe hacerse una pregunta: si el conflicto creció por la incompetencia del presidente estadounidense y por una reacción visceral de Netanyahu o si no existe alguna al menos remota posibilidad de que algo de todo esto haya sido permitido a pesar de las previsibles consecuencias. En el caso de Biden nos inclinamos por la incompetencia ya que se le abrió un frente de lucha cuando todavía estaba muy lejos de resolverse la guerra entre Rusia y Ucrania. Ahora Ucrania está quedando librada a su suerte con las consecuencias visibles en el campo de batalla. Netanyahu, por su parte, parece estar abarcando más de lo que puede apretar. El final, muy lejos de estar a la vista, parece difuminarse día a día.
NO ONE KNOWS HOW TO RESOLVE THE IRANIAN QUESTION
There seems to be no consensus among the United States, Israel and Great Britain and within each of those countries, on how to confront the Iranian question in the Hamas-Israel conflict, which is adding new actors. It seems to be Tehran that financed at least Hezbollah and the Yemeni rebels. While some British propose strengthening the presence in the Red Sea and attacking the Houthi rebels, many in the United States mention the possibility of a direct but limited attack on Iran. The risks of a total attack on Iran are well known, but it is unknown what the Iranian reaction would be to a limited attack. Neither one option nor the other resolves the issue. Iran has enough enriched uranium to build three atomic bombs, which seriously complicates the situation in the Middle East.
A good part of Israel's ground forces are made up of reservists, that is, they live from a regular full-time job, which cannot be abandoned without serious consequences for their personal economy and for the economy of the State of Israel. That would be at least one of the reasons why Israel is withdrawing troops from the Gaza Strip. Meanwhile, Hamas, but especially Hezbollah and the Houthis remain very active in the fight and the risk of an escalation has not decreased but rather appears to be increasing, leading to the possibility of an even bloodier if not total war in the region.
We know of the existence of an Israeli intelligence report that warned about the possibility of an attack on the border between Gaza and Israel dating back to a year before the event occurred. It is also known that Biden sent $6 billion to Tehran in ransom for hostages, to which the question arises: did the conflict grow due to the incompetence of the American president and a visceral reaction from Netanyahu or has it been allowed despite the foreseeable consequences? In the case of Biden, we lean towards incompetence since a second front was opened for him when the war between Russia and Ukraine was still very far from being resolved. Now Ukraine is being left to its own devices with the consequences visible on the battlefield. Netanyahu, on the other hand, seems to be dealing with more than he can handle. The end, far from being in sight, seems to keep bluring.
There seems to be no consensus among the United States, Israel and Great Britain and within each of those countries, on how to confront the Iranian question in the Hamas-Israel conflict, which is adding new actors. It seems to be Tehran that financed at least Hezbollah and the Yemeni rebels. While some British propose strengthening the presence in the Red Sea and attacking the Houthi rebels, many in the United States mention the possibility of a direct but limited attack on Iran. The risks of a total attack on Iran are well known, but it is unknown what the Iranian reaction would be to a limited attack. Neither one option nor the other resolves the issue. Iran has enough enriched uranium to build three atomic bombs, which seriously complicates the situation in the Middle East.
A good part of Israel's ground forces are made up of reservists, that is, they live from a regular full-time job, which cannot be abandoned without serious consequences for their personal economy and for the economy of the State of Israel. That would be at least one of the reasons why Israel is withdrawing troops from the Gaza Strip. Meanwhile, Hamas, but especially Hezbollah and the Houthis remain very active in the fight and the risk of an escalation has not decreased but rather appears to be increasing, leading to the possibility of an even bloodier if not total war in the region.
We know of the existence of an Israeli intelligence report that warned about the possibility of an attack on the border between Gaza and Israel dating back to a year before the event occurred. It is also known that Biden sent $6 billion to Tehran in ransom for hostages, to which the question arises: did the conflict grow due to the incompetence of the American president and a visceral reaction from Netanyahu or has it been allowed despite the foreseeable consequences? In the case of Biden, we lean towards incompetence since a second front was opened for him when the war between Russia and Ukraine was still very far from being resolved. Now Ukraine - at least to some extent - is being left alone, with the consequences visible on the battlefield. Netanyahu, on the other hand, seems to be dealing with more than he can handle. The end, far from being in sight, seems to keep bluring.